Forrester releases their top 10 eReader and eBook predictions for 2010
10:32 AM, Dec 1st, 2009 
4 Comments
Forrester's eReader predictions for 2010
Research analyst company Forrester has released their top 10 predictions for the eReader and eBook market in 2010. Some are rather obvious while others could be a straight shot in the dark. Read the full list at Forrester.com or see our recap below followed by our take.
- E-Ink won’t be the only game in town anymore.
- Dual-screened smart phones and netbooks will eat away at the eReader market.
- Applications for non-dedicated eReaders will increase in use.
- eReaders will get apps that will increase their fuctionality.
- Amazon will release a new touch screen Kindle.
- Barnes & Noble will eat into Amazon and Sony’s near 75% control of the market.
- eBooks will sell over $500 million in the U.S.
- eTextbooks will become more popular but still have modest sales.
- Newspapers and magazines will publish their own apps and create new content devices.
- The EU, China, India and Brazil will power global eReader growth, but the U.S. will still be the largest market.
Best Tablet Review’s take:
Traditional E-Ink screened eReaders will be a thing of the past by the end of next year. Forrester seems to think they’ll simply lose market share, but there will be no strong selling E-Ink device manufactured past Q1 of 2011. The reason is that there are better screen technologies debuting and coming out shortly. Forrester identifies three types of non-exclusive E-Ink displays that will control the market: cheaper solutions for E-Ink that use the same technology (like AUO), dual-screen devices with both E-Ink and LCD screens (like the Spring Design Alex and B&N Nook) and finally new screen technologies (like the Pixel Qi, Mirasol and color liquid powder screens). Expect to see two steps in this transition. First, E-Ink eReaders will have a significant price drop. New E-Ink tech makes it possible to make much cheaper screens to the point where we should see a $100 E-Ink eReader by the middle part of this year. Second, new screen technologies will begin gaining a foothold and continue to run the E-Ink devices into lower price points in order to compete. By the end of 2010 the new display technologies should be low enough to establish themselves as the baseline.
With more tablet PCs hitting the market, traditional E-Ink eReaders are doomed. Tablets will be come viable reading devices in the near future. Their larger color screens and touch format will attract many people that will invest more in a multitasking device. E-Ink eReaders need to evolve into color, multifunctional devices or face extinction. That need to survive will go a long way in solidifying color display technology as the new eReader standard. Also, we’ll begin seeing more Android eReader devices that can tap into the Android app market. These apps will increase the functionality of eReaders (like Forrester identified) from strict reading devices to include social media connection and limited media playback.
You can expect to see more dual-screen devices like the Entourage Edge and Nook, but don’t expect them to last long. Right now these hybrids exist to bridge a gap between paper-link readable screens and color media. Once color screen tech gets a foothold in the market there will be no need for them anymore. They will be like coupling a DVR with the ability to record VHS tapes.
Some of the other predictions on Forrester’s list are simply too speculative to discuss at the current time. Will Amazon come out with another Kindle this year? Almost certainly, but analysts thought that they’d debut a touchscreen Kindle by the fall of 2009 last year. Will B&N gobble up Amazon and Sony’s market share? Maybe in the first two quarters of 2010, but by Q3 there will be too many variables to predict if any of those eReaders will still be relevant. How will the Apple Tablet (I guess TabletMac is the current buzz word) shake up the market? Or the Microsoft Courier? Or any other number of devices hitting consumer’s hands next year? eBook content will continue to thrive (maybe even well past the $500 million estimate depending on what devices fuel the fire).
Whatever you may believe, 2010 is shaping up to be a breakout year for new gadget technology and the excitement is already building.
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Excellent predictions. For those with a low budget and interested in an eReader, this article gives a lot of hope. For those who like the latest/best, it also tells them to go slow considering that lots of advancements are expected in this eReader market. Wish I had seen this earlier.
I wish to add that ebooks are only very slowly being accepted by society. Still resistance to them is very high. Perhaps only in 10 to 15 years they will go mainstream. This is expected to hamper the growth of eReaders, eBooks and eBook libraries. This transition is going to take a while.
On further reflection, given my previous post, most of these predictions may take 2 to 3 years to come true.
Sony PRS-300 eReader that I got for $259 in November 2009 now goes for $199. This is a good price drop and is in keeping with the Forrester prediction of lower prices for eReaders. However, I don’t see other eReaders in the market locally. Hence, the price drop seems to be a test to see if lower price will increase sales. No one I know still has an eReader or even a remote interest in an eReader.
On the other hand, a lot of small book stores locally are closing due to eBooks, the net and also Big Book Stores.
So it is safe to say that present trends are mixed. Will be interesting to see what happens to the Forrester predictions above at different time points this year.